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Will the total in Mihalachi Igor vs. Anghel Vitalie be more than 3.5 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if over 3.5 sets are played in the Mihalachi Igor vs Anghel Vitalie Setka Cup Moldova Men match scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 7:45AM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the match does not begin due to a walkover, withdrawal, or cancellation, the market will settle to $0.50. If a player retires during the match and the market can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed, the market will settle accordingly; otherwise the market will settle to $0.50. If the match is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will se

Market says (typical open contract)
92%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
16% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
92¢ (now)0.7¢$0.3892.7%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will the total in Mihalachi Igor vs. Anghel Vitalie be more than 3.5?92¢92%0.7¢—16%0Nov 12, 17:45 UTC
Will the total in Mihalachi Igor vs. Anghel Vitalie be more than 4.5?91¢91%0.8¢—18%0Nov 12, 17:45 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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