What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 73¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $1.28.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 75% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 73%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 0.5 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Armenia and Cyprus combine for over 0.5 goals during 90 minutes plus stoppage time in the Armenia vs Cyprus UEFA Nations League match scheduled for November 12, 2026 at 12:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the match is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UEFA Nations League.

Market says (typical open contract)

73%

Median YES price across 26 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

54% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
73¢ (now)	1.9¢	$1.28	74.9%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 0.5?	92¢	92%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 1.5?	73¢	73%	1.9¢	—	54%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 2.5?	47¢	47%	2.4¢	—	94%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 3.5?	25¢	25%	1.8¢	—	50%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 4.5?	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 5.5?	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 0.5?	69¢	69%	2.0¢	—	62%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 1.5?	33¢	33%	2.1¢	—	66%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 2.5?	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 3.5?	18¢	18%	1.4¢	—	36%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 4.5?	15¢	15%	1.2¢	—	30%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 0.5?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 1.5?	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 2.5?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 3.5?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will the total in ARM vs CYP be more than 4.5?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will Armenia score more than 0.5 goals in 90 minutes plus stoppage time of ARM vs CYP?	80¢	80%	1.5¢	—	40%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will Armenia score more than 1.5 goals in 90 minutes plus stoppage time of ARM vs CYP?	44¢	44%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will Armenia score more than 2.5 goals in 90 minutes plus stoppage time of ARM vs CYP?	20¢	20%	1.5¢	—	40%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will Cyprus score more than 0.5 goals in 90 minutes plus stoppage time of ARM vs CYP?	74¢	74%	1.8¢	—	52%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will Cyprus score more than 1.5 goals in 90 minutes plus stoppage time of ARM vs CYP?	36¢	36%	2.2¢	—	72%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will Cyprus score more than 2.5 goals in 90 minutes plus stoppage time of ARM vs CYP?	17¢	17%	1.3¢	—	34%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will Armenia score more than 0.5 goals in the first half of ARM vs CYP?	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will Armenia score more than 1.5 goals in the first half of ARM vs CYP?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will Cyprus score more than 0.5 goals in the first half of ARM vs CYP?	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC
Will Cyprus score more than 1.5 goals in the first half of ARM vs CYP?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 26, 22:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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