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How Many House Seats Will The Democrats Win In California on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election is greater than or equal to 49. Outcome sourced from relevant state electoral authorities. All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attri

Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)0.2¢$4.662.2%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
How Many House Seats Will The Democrats Win In California?69¢69%2.0¢—62%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
How Many House Seats Will The Democrats Win In California?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
How Many House Seats Will The Democrats Win In California?4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
How Many House Seats Will The Democrats Win In California?3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
How Many House Seats Will The Democrats Win In California?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
How Many House Seats Will The Democrats Win In California?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
How Many House Seats Will The Democrats Win In California?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
How Many House Seats Will The Democrats Win In California?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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